Although it's kind of like watching hogs breed, with a sick fascination we can begin to follow the 2008 fight for the Republican nomination for President.
Already, the hopefuls are jockeying for position, even though the primaries are three years away. In order to win the nomination fight -- which is actually decided in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and (if the race is tight enough) South Carolina -- you must lay the groundwork in those early states well ahead of time.
Among those making unofficial campaign trips to early states are Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain. One name that apparently won't be in the running in 2008 is Bush, as in Jeb, the Florida Governor who has said he won't run.
An early poll shows Giuliani leading among those creeps who vote Republican, edging McCain, with Bush third and Frist a distant fourth.
At one point, I worried about a Giuliani candidacy, because he's such a feel-good character for leading his city through the 9/11 tragedy. But after watching Campaign 2004, Giuliani might be just the ticket for Democrats to beat. Just like a so-called "Northeastern liberal" a la John Kerry couldn't get elected President, I just don't think it would be that easy for a Northeastern Republican to carry the GOP's Southern base, especially if the Dems countered with any kind of red state Southerner or Midwesterner.
When it got down to the nitty-gritty, I'm just not sure those morals voters (who did or did not exist, depending on who you listen to) would flock to the polls for Giuliani in the numbers they needed to in order to elect Bush.
Obviously, Romney is a long, long shot of this group, a Northeasterner with limited recognition. His only claim would be that he's a Republcian who managed to win in a Democratic state, but that would actually be a negative to the national GOP.
Frist has the regional appeal as a Southerner, but also has limited recognition. (I would say questionable business practices by the company his family owns, HCA Inc., would hurt him, but Bush proved that theory wrong.)
Gingrich could be a spoiler, and I hope to see him run. The national party would never let him win, because he doesn't comform to the neo-con philosophy (that's not in any way a compliment to him, but...) He could cause some division and draw off some of the core conservative votes, serving much the same role in the GOP primary as Howard Dean served in the 2004 Democratic primary, as an ideological alternative before the party machinery cranks out its anointed one during the primary season.
McCain is one that should worry Democrats. Luckily, he's too far to the center on key Republican issues to ever pass muster with that GOP machinery, but he could certainly hinder any Democratic efforts to recapture that middle-of-the-road red-blooded American that the Dems will have to figure out how to appeal to it they are to begin winning elections instead of sliding into an increasingly marginal role.
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